Vulnerability and risks of Ecuador's energy system in the context of climate change and environmental sustainability policies
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Abstract
This study examines future CO2 emissions scenarios for Ecuador by 2050, considering the interrelationships among energy supply, energy demand, and economic growth. Using a system dynamics modeling approach, three scenarios were developed: a Business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, an optimistic national policy scenario (ESCN1), and a global trends scenario (ESCN2). The model was calibrated and validated using historical data from 2000 to 2015 and then applied to simulate the long-term behavior of CO2 emissions associated with final energy consumption across six key economic sectors. The results indicate that, under the BAU and ESCN1 scenarios, both energy demand and CO2 emissions are projected to increase significantly, driven by continued dependence on fossil fuels. In contrast, the ESCN2 scenario, aligned with international sustainability trends and policy frameworks, suggests a potential reduction in emissions by 2050 through a more diversified energy mix and improvements in energy efficiency.
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