Vulnerabilidad y riesgos del sistema energético ecuatoriano frente al cambio climático y las políticas de sostenibilidad ambiental
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Resumen
Este estudio analiza los escenarios futuros de emisiones de CO2 en Ecuador hacia el año 2050, considerando la relación entre la oferta y la demanda energética, así como su vínculo con el crecimiento económico. Mediante un enfoque de modelado basado en la dinámica de sistemas, se desarrollaron tres escenarios: un escenario tendencial (BAU), un escenario optimista con políticas nacionales (ESCN1) y un escenario alineado con las tendencias globales (ESCN2). El modelo fue calibrado y validado con datos históricos del período 2000-2015 y se aplicó para simular el comportamiento a largo plazo de las emisiones de CO2 derivadas del consumo final de energía en seis sectores económicos clave. Los resultados muestran que, bajo los escenarios BAU y ESCN1, se proyecta un aumento significativo de la demanda energética y de las emisiones de CO2, debido a la persistente dependencia de los combustibles fósiles. En contraste, el escenario ESCN2, alineado con políticas internacionales de sostenibilidad, sugiere una posible reducción de emisiones hacia 2050 mediante una matriz energética diversificada y mejoras en eficiencia energética.
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