Relación entre los indicadores financieros del modelo Altman Z y el puntaje Z
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Resumen
desde un punto de vista teórico, no existe un consenso general sobre la identificación de las dificultades financieras de una empresa. El modelo Altman Z-Score es reconocido en la literatura como un indicador para medir la probabilidad de insolvencia financiera. Aunqueeste modelo es muy difundido y utilizado como métrica para predecir las dificultades financieras, no existe acuerdo sobre los factores que determinan el comportamiento o resultado del puntaje Z. En este sentido, el propósito de este estudio es analizar los factores que determinan el comportamiento del puntaje Z-Score en las empresas colombianas. Esta investigación se desarrolla bajo un enfoque metodológico cuantitativo,con un diseño de tipo correlacional. Este alcance de investigación busca medir la asociación entre el puntaje Z de Altman y los indicadores financieros que determinan su resultado; para tal fin se analizan un total de 2684 empresas del sector comercial colombiano que reportaroninformación financiera de forma sistemática durante el periodo 2016-2020. Los resultados de las pruebas estadísticas efectuadas revelan que existe relación directa entre el indicador que mide la estructura financiera (patrimonio/pasivo) y el puntaje Z de Altman. Adicionalmente,permiten concluir que, desde el punto de vista del modelo de Altman, las empresas que capitalizan sus beneficios y mantienen bajo control su nivel de endeudamiento son empresas financieramente estables y con baja probabilidad de insolvencia.
Palabras Clave
Liquidez, Apalancamiento, Rendimiento, Estructura financiera, Correlación, Insolvencia financiera
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