Comercio y crecimiento económico inclusivo: China y América Latina (2004-2021)

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Harold D. Angulo-Bustinza
Jenny Paola Lis-Gutiérrez

Resumen

China se ha consolidado como una potencia global y su crecimiento ha sido notable. La influencia económica china en América Latina ha aumentado significativamente y el país es uno de los aliados comerciales más relevantes de la región. Por lo tanto, la relación comercial entre América Latina y China es estratégico. En este contexto, el estudio tiene como propósito analizar la relación entre el comercio internacional con China y el crecimiento económico inclusivo en América Latina entre 2004 y 2021, utilizando datos de 13 países de la región (Uruguay, Perú, Paraguay, Panamá, México, El Salvador, Ecuador, Costa Rica, Colombia, Chile, Brasil, Bolivia y Argentina). Nuestra investigación es de naturaleza cuantitativa, su diseño es no experimental y su alcance es correlacional. El modelo econométrico utilizado empleó datos de panel y el estimador Newey-West para tener en cuenta la autocorrelación de primer orden en el error. Los resultados indican una relación estadísticamente significativa y negativa entre las exportaciones latinoamericanas hacia China, lo cual tiene un impacto del 10 % en el crecimiento económico inclusivo. De manera similar, las importaciones desde China hacia América Latina muestran una relación estadísticamente significativa y negativa del 5 % con el crecimiento económico inclusivo. No se identificó evidencia que respalde una relación entre la inversión extranjera directa (IED) china en los países latinoamericanos y el crecimiento económico inclusivo

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